Fate/Grand Order Gacha Probability Calculator
Fate/Grand Order numbers, not guesses. The rate-up SSR summon runs a 0.8% base rate with soft pity from pull 330 and a hard ceiling at 330. Everything below is calculated from that model.
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What Fate/Grand Order pulls actually cost you in probability
Fate/Grand Order does not run independent pulls. The base rate is 0.8% per pull, but a soft pity starts at pull 330 and the 330th pull is guaranteed. That single fact is why a flat probability formula gives the wrong answer — and why most players misjudge their odds.
At a flat 0.8% the chance of at least one 5★ inside 330 pulls would be 92.9%. With pity in play it is 100%: the guarantee does the work. Half of all players hit by pull 87; 90% hit by pull 287.
Pull-by-pull breakdown
Chance of at least one 5★ in Fate/Grand Order, by number of pulls
| Pulls | Chance of at least one 5★ | Chance of nothing |
|---|---|---|
| 10 | 7.7% | 92.3% |
| 20 | 14.8% | 85.2% |
| 40 | 27.5% | 72.5% |
| 60 | 38.2% | 61.8% |
| 80 | 47.4% | 52.6% |
| 330 | 100.0% | 0.0% |
Why the plain formula undersells you
A simple 1−(1−p)ⁿ model assumes every pull is identical. Between pull 330 and 330 it is not: the rate climbs by 0.0 percentage points per pull, so the last stretch is worth far more than the first. Use the table above for planning, and the pity calculator when you want 50/50 and guarantee scenarios modelled explicitly.
FAQ
What is the 5★ rate in Fate/Grand Order?
The base rate is 0.8% per pull. Soft pity begins at pull 330 and the 330th pull is guaranteed, so the effective long-run rate is higher than 0.8%.
How many pulls do I need for a 50% chance in Fate/Grand Order?
About 87 pulls from zero pity. For 90% confidence you need 287 pulls.
Do ten-pulls have better odds in Fate/Grand Order?
For 5★ characters, no. Ten-pulls and single pulls use the same per-pull rate; ten-pulls only matter when the game guarantees a 4★ inside them.