Honkai: Star Rail Gacha Probability Calculator
Honkai: Star Rail numbers, not guesses. The character event warp runs a 0.6% base rate with soft pity from pull 74 and a hard ceiling at 90. Everything below is calculated from that model.
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What Honkai: Star Rail pulls actually cost you in probability
Honkai: Star Rail does not run independent pulls. The base rate is 0.6% per pull, but a soft pity starts at pull 74 and the 90th pull is guaranteed. That single fact is why a flat probability formula gives the wrong answer — and why most players misjudge their odds.
At a flat 0.6% the chance of at least one 5★ inside 90 pulls would be 41.8%. With pity in play it is 100%: the guarantee does the work. Half of all players hit by pull 76; 90% hit by pull 80.
Pull-by-pull breakdown
Chance of at least one 5★ in Honkai: Star Rail, by number of pulls
| Pulls | Chance of at least one 5★ | Chance of nothing |
|---|---|---|
| 10 | 5.8% | 94.2% |
| 20 | 11.3% | 88.7% |
| 40 | 21.4% | 78.6% |
| 60 | 30.3% | 69.7% |
| 80 | 91.8% | 8.2% |
| 90 | 100.0% | 0.0% |
Why the plain formula undersells you
A simple 1−(1−p)ⁿ model assumes every pull is identical. Between pull 74 and 90 it is not: the rate climbs by 6.0 percentage points per pull, so the last stretch is worth far more than the first. Use the table above for planning, and the pity calculator when you want 50/50 and guarantee scenarios modelled explicitly.
FAQ
What is the 5★ rate in Honkai: Star Rail?
The base rate is 0.6% per pull. Soft pity begins at pull 74 and the 90th pull is guaranteed, so the effective long-run rate is higher than 0.6%.
How many pulls do I need for a 50% chance in Honkai: Star Rail?
About 76 pulls from zero pity. For 90% confidence you need 80 pulls.
Do ten-pulls have better odds in Honkai: Star Rail?
For 5★ characters, no. Ten-pulls and single pulls use the same per-pull rate; ten-pulls only matter when the game guarantees a 4★ inside them.